For years, my conviction has been clear: By the end of 2025, the first humanoid robots for personal use will be commercially available. But whenever I shared this belief at events, I was mostly met with a slight shrug, a knowing grin, or reactions like:
“Very inspiring, the way you present it, but do you really believe it will happen that fast?”
“There are still far too many issues.”
Or, my personal favorite, “Your theses are always exciting but way too radical. That’s not how it’s going to happen. People will still ... [insert favorite cliché here].”
Looking back, I realize I was too conservative in my predictions, or I simply didn’t trust my intuition enough. The highs and lows of past tech utopias leave deep traces, especially when it comes to robots. But just as we were once overrun by personal computers, the world wide web, smartphones or generative AI, we are now once again on the brink of a fundamental technological shift that will blur the lines between human and machine for good.
When Elon Musk entered the stage at the Saudi-US Investment Forum, his predictions — after showing off the latest dance moves, conversational skills and movements — were, “Ultimately there will be tens of billions of them … who wouldn’t want to have their own C3PO or R2D2, only better?” He went on, “It unlocks an immense amount of economic potential ... it’s really unlimited.” Marketers like Musk own the space of fueling expectations, yet still the question closing in on us is this:
What will become of the Mensch, of us?
The Humanoid Robot Market in 2025
The sudden momentum in humanoid robotics is no coincidence. Numerous companies, from tech giants to agile startups, are pushing development forward. We are seeing a convergence of evolving technologies. They all share the goal of bringing human-like robots with versatile functions into the workplace and, eventually, into our everyday lives.
Now, intelligence and mechanical dynamism are merging.
Tesla plans to produce around 5,000 Optimus robots by the end of 2025. In Musk’s case, the combination of fully automated mass production, perfection in mechanical and tech manufacturing, decades of data from Tesla’s camera systems, direct access to the consumer market, extensive communication channels like X and Starlink satellite communications, and the company’s AI model Grok suggests that the once-popular Tesla car may have just been a means to an end.
Robots-as-a-Service (RaaS)
But Musk isn’t alone as other prominent players in the race toward the commercial adoption of humanoid robots. For instance, Boston Dynamics’ Atlas model shows impressive agility. Likewise, a company called Figure attracted $675 million in investment seemingly overnight and partnered with OpenAI for intelligent control systems thanks to the impressive agility of its robot. Nvidia, Microsoft, the Amazon Alexa Fund, and even Amazon founder Jeff Bezos are all involved as partners and investors.
Meanwhile, new players like Sanctuary AI, Apptronik (Apollo) and Agility Robotics (Digit) are all launching monthly updates. Ambitious projects are also emerging in Asia — Unitree, Xiaomi’s CyberOne and Fourier Intelligence from Shanghai and Ubtech — proving that this isn’t just an American race. In Europe, the Norwegian company 1X Technologies (formerly Halodi Robotics) is making waves, while Neura Robotics in Germany is also aiming for a spot.
What Is Robot-as-a-Service (RaaS)?
The Robot-as-a-Service model is the likeliest way that humanoid robots will be implemented into peoples’ lives. It involves renting a robot on a per-task basis much like hiring contract labor. This will help consumers defray the expenses of purchasing a costly unit while still benefitting from their services.
What just a few years ago seemed like wild speculation — that we would actually get robots in our homes — now appears within reach. The growing number of providers, fresh billion-dollar investments and the combination of key competencies and cutting-edge tech are rapidly driving development and potentially giving birth to a trillion-dollar industry.
But who would buy a $20 to 30.000 robot for their home you might ask? Well, that could be the wrong question to ask. The Robot-as-a-Service (RaaS) model is already attracting many providers. Instead of selling robots, companies rent them out for monthly fees or per completed task. This structure means the robots don’t have to be “finished,” and they can be upgraded anytime.
The key is that you’ve got one at home, and you’re part of the ecosystem. It’s nothing less than Alexa on two legs with omniscience and superpowers. It will be really smart, and we can offload any task to the machine.
This already applies to industrial applications with modular skill systems, where robots gain new abilities via downloadable apps. Companies are using humanoid robots in warehouses for repetitive tasks and in production sites to support workers.
All these information and training data from industrial uses will now be available for your personal humanoid. This significantly lowers the barrier to entry for companies. Labor-as-a-Service, where companies pay only for completed tasks, has long arrived in strategy departments and is shaping future business planning, thus speeding up the transition to the consumer market. Robots building robots building robots instantly and continuously learning at scale as the first humanoids will be amongst us...
All this makes one thing clear: No single company can tackle this complex field alone. Instead, ecosystems are forming to develop joint solutions and accelerate progress. Everywhere, global networks and strategic alliances are forming from new key technologies and talent. New breakthroughs happen daily.
The growing interconnectedness is evident in recent investments. OpenAI invested in the Norwegian startup 1X, Samsung backed Rainbow Robotics from Korea and Toyota founded a major AI and robotics research institute with Panasonic. Amazon, with Digit by Agility Robotics, has its eye on a bipedal robot picker to complement its rolling Kiva robots and now plans to expand into the consumer market too.
Cross-industry collaborations are also providing strong momentum: Boston Dynamics is working with Toyota’s Robotics and AI Institute to enhance bipedal robots through reinforcement learning. Open-source platforms like the Newton physics engine or Nvidia Isaac Gym, where developers worldwide work on challenges like balance algorithms or finger sensors, are just a few examples.
The interface with HR, traditionally human resources, will soon get an exciting new extension: Humanoid Resources. The emergence of humanoid robots is giving rise to entirely new jobs, such as “Robot Supervisors” or “Robot Fleet Managers.” Their role: monitoring, coordinating and controlling robot deployment, providing technical support and training their AI systems. Human-robot teams will become part of everyday work, allowing people to focus on more creative and demanding tasks. We are seeing the rise of a new industrial revolution with prosperous outlooks and economic growth. Or so the promise goes.
What Kind of Future Do We Want?
Next up: healthcare and personal services as the robots enter our homes. Once inside our four walls, there are no limits. A global learning device, training and learning, updating and optimizing 24/seven. A global race to capture your home is officially on, and it’s on a scale unlike anything we’ve seen before.
Why are we so sure? Because we have again and again chosen smart efficiency devices to upgrade and optimize our lives. Now, as we’re finally entering an age of intelligence abundance, the question for you is rather, what use cases, beyond unloading the dishwasher or walking the dog, would you enjoy, even if they still sound like science fiction? Once outlined, they will already be available.
But it’s not that simple. Once the job is gone and “humans can focus on the human stuff,” what exactly will that be? Will your humanoid get a haircut, and would you be the first humanoid barber? Or will the robot handle that itself? And what does your robot wear? Which suit or fashion brand will be its favorite? Will it carry a chic handbag or a hipster backpack? And if your humanoid assistant becomes fully integrated into your family, will you take it on vacation to help watch the kids? Will you pack it in a suitcase while switched off, or will it need its own plane ticket to sit beside you?
In the not-too-distant future, humanoid robots will become part of daily life with applications that still seem futuristic to many. Why? Because this is what we do: We strive for the possible. We want to become more efficient and figure out how technology can handle things. The major promise is more efficiency so humans can focus on “what really matters” or “be creative.” I don’t know about you, but I find GPT incredibly creative. And what exactly was “what really matters” again?
With the arrival of humanoid robots and ever more powerful AI models, there is a new challenge as we are moving beyond the question of mere feasibility into a Sci-Phi discourse: a scientific-philosophical space where the question is no longer just what’s possible, but what it means when everything becomes possible.
We will realize that, in the short term, higher margins and profits can be achieved through increased efficiency, the future will be brighter. There seem to be no limits and thus no limits to what people can be paid for in the future, regardless of what they do.
In a global, hyper-competitive market, every form of inefficiency will be immediately identified and solved by cheaper, more efficient alternatives. Humanoid robots are beginning to leap from labs into real-world practice.
Technical and regulatory challenges still lie ahead, but the course is already set for a future in which robots accompany us in everyday life.
The ultimate question that remains is: What will our everyday life even be then? Or put differently, what kind of future is worth striving for? Do you think your once-unrealistic scenario could truly come true? Where do the boundaries between fiction and the future lie? Do they even exist?
Do I believe in it? For me, it's less about belief. We can all learn to anticipate the future. Because those who act from the future can shape the present. So the real question is: Are you ready to be replaced? Maybe it has never been more important to ask that question.
The humanoid robots are now here.
